Targeted Programming Strategies

Keeping It Real Takes On A Whole New Meaning

One thing we've noticed as we say sayonara to the first couple of months of the new year is the need to keep growing new audience by using targeted programming strategies. There is a change in the thinking of today's generation of listeners. Whether it's generations of character, harmony, sophistication or style, they are evolving. This is where variety meets spontaneity.

For some reason, many Urban and especially younger targeting Urban AC stations seem to feel a need to keep reminding us of the fact that they're offering variety, but they keep trying to do it with the same old liners -- liners that just don't have the same meaning they used to have. It's kind of like the problem with being famous; if you stop being famous for while, it's as if you never were. It's all part of the system. The problem is Generations Y and Jones just don't buy it.

The system has been forced to evolve ...as has the audience. The problem is nothing new. One of the major areas that Urban programmers are being forced to address is improvement of measurement among 18-24 year-old males.

Advertisers and agencies assert that all Urban listeners care about is hip-hop, clubbing and sex. It's part of what some call "the new thug mentality." It's a concept that was exacerbated a few years ago with an on-air beef between 50 Cent and the Game, which ended in bloodshed on the sidewalk in front of Hot 97 in New York.

Hip-hop is an industry and the disputes cannot be separated from the money that makes the music possible. Some reject the idea that these disputes are simply a marketing ploy. This is the mindset. If 50 Cent and The Game were two hustlers -- and they are in a sense -- and they have a beef ... which they do ... and that beef gets interfered with, this is how they handle it. Regardless of where the beefs start or if they are real or not, radio decides the kind of airplay they get. And it's not a painless choice.

While earlier crusades against hop-hop were fed by people who disliked the music, now there is one being run by people who love hip-hop but feel it has been polluted by cash. Oddly enough, these same market forces are also the best weapon for reform. Of course, this is not a true reflection of men 18-24 -- and Urban stations have set out to change that perception.

One way to change an advertiser's view is to have a large audience and preferably be dominant in a key adult demo or two. Urban stations have succeeded in building big audiences, adding broader demos to their 18-24 male cores. But programmers going after those 18-24 demos have been continually frustrated at Arbitron's difficulty in finding these listeners and measuring their listening behavior, particularly in those markets currently being measured by the PPM.

We've learned some things about this select group of listeners. Men 18-24 make up about 6.6% of persons12+ nationally. At best, roughly one in 15 will return a diary or carry a meter. About one household in seven has a male 18-24 resident. Members of this demo are less likely to cooperate in a research survey than those in other demos or sexes -- and they are more likely to be part of a cell phone-only household.

So how do we solve this problem in 2010? Broadcasters in general -- and minority broadcasters in particular -- have been saying for years the best way to solve the problem is to increase survey sample size. But greater sample size alone won't solve the problem. To increase statistical reliability by half, it would be necessary to quadruple sample size.

Audience estimates are not driven by sample size. They're a function of reported listening either by diary or by PPM. More diaries or meters merely reduces the "bounce" between estimates. While there are different answers for both the diary and the meter, Arbitron is currently working on making improvements. While they're doing that, we have some suggestions and a few 'secrets" to share with you.

New Musical Consistency

One of the secrets to improving your 18-24 male demos is being consistent with your new music. While this may seem like oversimplification, being consistent with new music first, combined with an understanding of what's in the heads of those young male listeners you're trying to attract, is key. Just like many of us, they could be going through a period of unemployment or just reacting to the stress that's now part of their daily lives. What they're not looking to for is a smooth ride on a well-paved road. Their parents may be, but they're not. This group demands unfiltered new music ... and the hunger for fresh new jams doesn't stop at age 24. Being known as a prime source for new music can extend well into the upper demos.

Many Urban stations have noticed this shift and have reacted accordingly with careful dayparting. Their current-to-gold ratio during the day, when the audience tends to be slightly older, is lower. At night, the percentage of currents increases dramatically because the audience is younger and demands it. Those 18-24 year-olds drive what new music is going to work on your station. Without them, you've vulnerable to a format competitor like a Rhythmic or Urban-leaning Top 40.

The new music that airs during the day has to be the cream of the crop -- the jams that have the best potential of making it into the library. Many of those daytime currents probably started at night when the younger audience was very important to the overall sound and image of your station. Some stations -- whose programmers and consultants we've spoken to recently -- have given up on the younger end of the demo because, in their minds, people in that age group are too fickle in their musical tastes and not loyal listeners. But that loyalty needs to be earned by programming the right new music.

Now the question turns to what is the right new music? How do you find it? Naturally, part of the answer is research. And right here we can eliminate some ulcers by saying that neither callout nor auditorium testing, done under the most optimum conditions, is completely accurate.

Now this doesn't mean that you shouldn't attempt to do some research. Rather, it means that you should understand that music testing is going to be distorted. It is going to be distorted by the artificiality of playing the hooks (and some consultants and testers can't find Urban song hooks with a road map). These are the same characters that can't even clap on the beat. What we mean here is that playing a 7-12-second segment of a song with minimal airplay and then attempting to get a high passion score is ridiculous.

Expecting the respondents to project and articulate their response to a song as a whole resulting in some intellectualizing of an emotional response is not only an inexact science, it's a pure guessing game. And yet, companies pay thousands of dollars each year and base their programming decisions on the results of these tests. And something else you should know is that online testing is even more risky.

There are three basic type of research that most stations do on a regular basis: Auditorium Music Test (AMTs), Focus Groups, and Callouts.

Auditorium Music tests are conducted with a carefully screened group of target listeners who evaluate portions of songs called hooks. Each song is scored according to its familiarity, appeal and passion.

Callout research is an evaluation process wherein target listeners evaluate 30 or more songs weekly -- again indicating familiarity, appeal, fatigue and passion.

Focus Groups are smaller, carefully-selected groups of target listeners who discuss and identify key issues and set priorities for quantitative research and are designed to enhance the overall value of perceptual research.

Someone once asked me, "If you have a limited budget and limited time, which form of research should you choose?" I personally feel that it depends on the station. For example, if the station is an Urban AC, gold-based station, an auditorium test would be the best choice. If your station is a mainstream, current-based Urban, callout research gets the nod.

In both cases, it's important that the questionnaires be carefully reviewed so as not to confuse the respondents. It also helps if the moderator looks like those he/she is moderating. We cannot put absolute faith in a research process without understanding what the limitations are.

The worst thing you can do is base your music decisions on flawed research. This means that the participants have to be screened carefully to ensure that all lie within the station's cume. I like to use updated zip code data to determine where the respondents should be drawn from. I also like to make certain that all the ethnic considerations are reflected. In other words, there should be balance. A lot of companies assume, for example, that an Urban station should only have African-Americans in the sample. Then, despite any age skewing in the sample, it has to be demographically balanced; and finally, the sample has to be of sufficient size to give some stability to the results. I like a sample of at least 300 persons.

Many managers and owners feel that they can save some money by reducing the sample size. After all, if they are paying an average of $35-$40 per person, the fewer people they have to pay, the more they can save, right? Wrong. You need a minimum of over 150 completed calls per week and over 600 per month just to have a chance at some actionable results. The larger the sample, the more reliable.

Perhaps the most actionable information that this research can provide is burnout (finding out if the songs being tested are overexposed). Then, if your results show you have some titles that are tired, you should retire or "rest" them and go on to the next group of fresh songs in that category.

Cume Building In A PPM World

One of the other things that can cause major problems, particularly in markets being measured electronically, is the failure to fully understand how cume building really works. There's an old saying that you can't sell anybody anything until they come into the store. As it relates to radio, it means you can't generate cume ratings until you get your listeners to carry a meter with your encoded signal. Once they do, they become a potential part of your weekly cume.

I've said this for years now: The biggest single problem many Urban AC and Urban stations have is failure to build and maintain cume. It doesn't matter if you have great average quarter-hours (AQH) or Time Spent Listening (TSL) if you've only got 10 listeners. In PPM, cume is king.

It would be impossible for us to attempt to sort out all the things you might need to know regarding cume, but we will at least attempt to point you in the right direction. What we can say here is that you should at least analyze your station's cume and compare it with both your competition and the previous ratings sweep. If you find that your competition -- regardless of who they are (the station or stations that you share the most audience with,) -- has doubled its cume while you remained the same, you're in trouble. You'd better do some strategic planning to figure out how you can take a piece of their cume and put it on your side. Urban stations should be cuming at least 10%-15% of the total audience in their market.

Finally, it's not just research, musical diversity and recognizing character differences that translate directly into audience growth and swollen cumes. It's all that combined with targeted programming strategies. In short, you have to find a way or make one.

Word!