Are Adults Being Lured Back To Pure Urban Stations?

These Things Are Cyclical ... Including The Fear Factor

Recent studies have shown that in some markets, urban adults are being lured away from traditional Urban AC stations and back to stations that feature hip-hop and street jocks. The question becomes Are these isolated instances or is this a real trend for Urban adult stations whose playlists have become too sterile and whose sound is too soft?

We spoke to several programmers of both Urban and Urban AC formats. One winning Urban programmer from the Midwest reasons burnout is a major part of Urban AC's problem. "Especially in the major markets, many Urban AC artists have been overplayed and are pretty crispy. As a result, these artists don't have the same impact as before." Some of the traditional Urban AC artists have lost some of their attractiveness. Based on the results of recent test scores, programmers can see that listeners are getting tired of some core artists and looking for other fresh choices.

Many Urban AC programmers are ex-Urban strategists who have just completed that evolutionary process. A return to that format could present perceptional problems. You have to do what your market dictates. But, at the same time, you have to be careful not to confuse the station's image. It helps when research is properly done, interpreted and executed. However, it doesn't mean there won't be ratings decreases. These things can be cyclical. In the last few years, many Urban AC stations became safe, sterile and predicable. A lot of researched songs with tempo became mass-appeal, and this breathed life into Urban stations. We could be going through another one of those cycles.

While most sales managers agree the money demo is still 25-54, realistically, in some markets the demo may be younger. For example, a 25-34-year-old female's musical taste is inclined to be more youthful than many of us once thought. These females are exposed to many musical styles and they're thinking younger. What has helped the Urban adult formats is that some Urban ACs have become more personality-driven. Much of this is an offshoot of a time when Urban stations played all the hits and had personalities throughout the day and made the station fun to listen to.

In some cases where Urban ACs veer back to more traditional Urban songs, the market's remaining Urban AC or even Smooth Jazz station may be tempted to pick up the pace and take a chance on some newer titles in an effort to pick up some audience.

The 18-24 Demo Pursuit

It comes as no surprise that currently one of Arbitron's biggest PPM challenges is the 18-34 demos. Many Urban AC programmers are wondering how that affects the overall ratings picture, especially for stations catering to listeners over 25. Here's the answer: The goal is to balance the sample between age and sex. Historically, some cells and population groups have proven harder to reach than others, and Arbitron has long employed special measures to get those hard-to-contact people. They include differential premiums, weighting, split counties, follow-up phone calls and special cell-phone-only measures.

The question remains: How will a higher 18-24 response rate affect a market's overall ratings picture? The truth is that in the major PPM markets there will be more meters and in-tab 18-24s, but that shouldn't affect the ratings in any market. That answer may surprise some because of long-held misconceptions about the impact an increase in participation in one cell has on other cells and on the entire ratings process.

But the marketplace perception is altogether different. The perception in stations targeting younger demos is that they're being cheated out of ratings points. The reality is there's no difference when more 18-24 diaries or meters are tallied. Listening is calculated on weighted estimates.

The final step of the ratings calculation process is to balance the sample. Some stations think the more diaries or meters they have in their target cell, the bigger their audience will be. But each diary or meter has its own value based on age, sex, ethnicity and geography. If you have too many in one cell and not enough in another, they are assigned differently. That's how the sample is balanced to match the population. If you make an audience projection, it must be done against the population.

While the ratings won't change as a result of a greater 18-24 in-tab, stations targeting that demo will realize other benefits. While the audience estimates have been more accurate because of the weighting, some younger-targeted stations have found that under-delivery of a young demo meant there weren't enough diaries or meters to do the kind of micro-marketing analyses they wanted to do. That part of their concerns was very real.

It's also important to note that older people in a household will return diaries or wear a PPM at a slightly better rate because they're also affected by different survey treatment. This may explain why, in some metered markets, traditional Urban stations have done poorly compared to their adult counterparts.

Remember who lives in those households with a lot of 18-24s -- people over 45.

Whether Arbitron wanted to or not, they're giving those people special treatment as well. We should expect the same commitment principle will work on them. This shouldn't result in gains for older-targeted stations. The impact will be that diaries and meters from those 45+ will receive less weight. Does that mean a household with 18-24s is no different than one without a resident of that age? Does an older demo with an 18-24 in the household reacts differently than an older demo with an 18-24 resident? The reality is, especially in the case of PPM, that we don't really know. We do know returns improved with the new treatments and the cell-phone-only procedures.

All this results in better representation ... and better representation benefits everybody because it reduces the total amount of weighting necessary, which makes for greater stability in the long run.

Finally, it's true that the young end of the adult audience is being lured to mainstream Urban stations. What many of those surveyed in recent perceptual tests said was they wanted more variety that their favorite Urban adult station offered. Variety is the still the key to the Urban adult format's appeal. That means different music styles such as fast, slow, old and new. If we go too far in one direction we could end up like Top 40 in the late '90s when it became too dance or disco-oriented or, in some markets, too rock-oriented.

The one other ingredient that some adult Urban stations have lost is the "hipness factor." No matter how well-researched and targeted these stations become, if they're perceived as not being hip, that one factor could end up negatively affecting their core.

Word.