Avoiding The Cume Crises

Sustainable Positions Fueled By Narrow Focus

We've been saying for some time now that Urban programmers need to stay within the values their listeners love while still pushing the envelope. Listeners bring expectations to each tune-in. While these expectations can vary across formats, truth and a sense of how well the station really understands its listeners are nearly universally expected. It's a value-based proposition: a code of conduct that separates one station from its competition.

It's important to remember that not all P1s are created equal. A new measure called "percent of listening" uncovers who really matters. And it's obviously the P1s or heavy users. Heavy users often account for nearly 90% of the ratings. Fully understanding this can help to prevent "the cume crises."

There are some dangers and risks connected with bringing major-market cookie-cutter programming ideas in and expecting huge shares, especially in small and medium markets.

Certain aspects of empty studios and centralized, cookie-cutter programming may work if they're just good radio basics, but it's still localization that can make a difference ... especially with all the syndicated programming now being offered. We need to reflect the mood and attitude of the market. Successful programmers listen to their stations and then do their own one-on-one focus groups, often in lieu of a research budget.

Radio can't be an iPod, Pandora or any one of dozens of new media choices. Radio cannot compete on just one plane - music. Years ago, young listeners got music in two places -- radio and record stores. Now they get their music from neither. Music is available everywhere, so there is nothing special about getting it on the radio. Radio is still a community of listeners and only one of many attractions. People can play whatever they want on their iPods, but if a station can make them sit through a song they don't really like because they are connected to it in some way, that is our future. Urban stations today need to use every window to tap into the passion for music as a bonding tool between themselves and the listener.

Unfortunately, much of Urban radio ends up like dogs chasing their tails, with so many small-market PDs imitating major-market stations instead of paying attention to local needs. Audiences tastes can change overnight and we need to focus on those changes. It's up to programmers to find the best available music, content and promotions for their market and present them in ways that appeal to the masses. You can't simply blindly follow the niche your research department defines.

Emotional Bonding

As programmers we're always looking for new and innovative ways to make an emotional bond with our audience. I'm convinced that the Urban formats have great potential to build that relationship because Urban listeners are so loyal.

The left flank attack with a combination of strong, local and nationally syndicated air personalities can still be very effective. The key is to must make sure the station is perceived not only as the one for music and entertainment, but also as the station that's always on top of what's going on in the local market, as well as the national music and artist arenas. The station should always have a cause it's pursuing. The higher-profile station needs to remember that Urban listeners not only want to have fun, but like to help someone who deserves help. This notion goes a long way in either holding your mountaintop position or digging away at the other station's perch.

Another area that is becoming increasingly important is the digital department for those stations that need to take their online efforts to the next level. You want to be able to take what is happening on-air and match it, hand in hand, with your online presence.

Fad Formats & Defensive Programming

Urban radio needs to come to terms with the fact that a mass-appeal Urban or Urban AC station is a niche format. And there is no new "one size fits all, quick fix" that GMs seem always in a hurry to find. Some of these "fad formats" will prove to be a disappointment. They can be easily blocked by effective defensive programming. In the long run if a mainstream or adult-leaning Urban station is focused, they can make some effective moves to slow down or stop a competitor that is depending solely on its music to win. Sure, there will always be a few fringe flavor records and artists that cross over. But a well-programmed, focused mass-appeal Urban station can "block many shots," especially if it truly understands niche defensive programming.

With the bulk of the population growing older, Urban stations have to focus and concentrate increasingly on adults. Teens and sub-teens, who are now being measured by Arbitron's PPM, may seem less important from a sales standpoint. But for ratings purposes, they cannot be ignored.

This is a decade of more bottom line-oriented stations. With some of the newly purchased or traded stations, owners may feel that they won't be able to make much money with teen numbers. But the reality is if teens carry a meter and keep your station on, those numbers could swell ... and very quickly. Remember, there is a lot of unintended listening that could result from teens and sub-teens not only being measured, but also keeping everybody in their immediate vicinity exposed to your encoded station. Even if you're an adult-leaning Urban station, we don't advise going after a hip older audience with a steady diet of ballads and oldies. Play the jams adults like that also have teen appeal. They're out there. And the formats can overlap on both sides.

Straight-ahead Urban stations should never concentrate on older demos. Those stations will always be considered an 18-34 format with some teens and some older listeners who want the hipness thrown in on the side. Certainly there are 35+ listeners, lots of them, who fall in the Urban psychographic, and as the population bulge grows the format's listenership in that cell will grow as a result.

There probably isn't a single programmer who hasn't had to defend the format, either from inside his or her own station, or elsewhere in the industry. Our economy is down and billing is off by as much as 30% in certain markets. Owners and managers want answers. Yet some of the format's make-or-break moments are actually moments of choice. Urban stations today face a daunting array of choices and the real challenges have never been greater. But what if we could reduce the risks by putting in place the right elements designed with the use of real data mining and sophisticated, real-time analytics? Such imaginings are now possible.

No matter what you may have heard or from whom, cume is key for Urban formats. That means getting some new people to listen to your radio station. This is nothing new. What may be new is the fact that for many Urban stations, the passion that drives that cume is fading. In order to build cume, Urban radio needs to be doing the very best possible job of making sure there are no wasted words, wrong songs or confusing marketing. The other thing that always helps to build cume is to find and play the right fresh jams.

Very few Urban PDs have time to listen and find new music. That's because they are just too busy. But we've got to find a way to do it. It's too important. Overall it's essential to prioritize your duties by what's going to impact the product and what isn't. It's so easy to get sidelined or distracted by issues that may be important, but aren't going to immediately affect the station's ratings. We can't afford to get stuck in the middle, waiting for the next thing to come pick us up. Many Urban stations have done a poor job of engaging the next generation. This is partly because the powers-that-be can't measure a young audience very well. As a result we tend to program for people who can't be measured. That means we're missing the next generation of adults.

As a result, for many listeners Urban formats have become unbelievably boring. Boring formats translate into serious cume crises. A few years from now, when our libraries are fried and we're left with no current music image, we're going to really be in trouble. There is also a confidence problem. We're starting to see it in focus groups. As fragmentation continues, Urban stations need to become not only a new music source, but also mood setters.

All music formats are guilty to some extent of adding, but not playing songs. If you add a record you've got to play it four, five or six times a day. Otherwise, why bother? A lot of programmers we've spoken to lately say that the problem is compounded by the fact that they have syndicated and voicedtracked shows, whose music they don't control.

The solution is that regardless of whatever else may be going on at your station, you need to realize that records that are under-played, for whatever reason, are not going to do well in callout research. When we asked several PDs in various-sized markets if they had heard any outstanding potentially cume-building records lately, they said, "Let me check." They hit a few key strokes on their computer and came back and said, "No." When I pressed them further, the answers all came back that very few of the records they thought had potential came back in their research.

Now I believe in research as a tool. But effective research is a careful balance of science and emotion. Everything should start emotionally and creatively. Then we use research to see if it confirms our gut instincts. One of the reasons Urban AC radio gets so stale is because people keep researching past behavior. What that means is any pure researcher in any field except marketing would never ask a series of strategic questions like: "What do they like? What don't they like? Why do they use radio?" For this type of research, we need to use forward-looking questions, such as "Would you listen often, sometimes or never to a station that played the following titles?" And then list the titles.

Strategic Cume Building Research

I probably get more requests for this information than any other -- and it isn't just from new, first-time programmers. It's from veterans as well. Properly utilized, research will tell you where you are in terms of your listeners' demands for your product and what you have to do to hit your goals of cume, ratings shares, demo targets and product awareness. But when all else is equal in a competitive battle, the station that has the best information about the audience's needs and then does the best job of meeting those needs will win the cume battle.

You can be the best programmer and have the best research, but no matter how talented you are, if you do not have the best information about the audience's needs, or you can't interpret the research accurately you will not be able to deliver the results expected by your management. Here's why: As important as research is in 2012, even the very best research will not guarantee results for your station. There are many stations that spend a lot of time and money on research and still watch their cumes collapse. Why? Some PDs are better than others at making research work for them. They aren't necessarily smarter or more experienced, just more strategic. They have a strategy and a plan to go with that strategy.

In addition, they usually have a clearly defined set of goals that expresses where they want to end up. They have the knowledge and experience to deal with research companies. They are not intimidated by researchers who have had little or no firsthand experience in Urban formats. They have a formalized implementation plan to take the research findings and make the necessary changes to programming in order to achieve their goals. They have a staff with the skills and experience to get the job done. Research is just a tool. Without good management the best research will wind up wasted.

Secrets Of Sample Size

As a programmer you need to know a little about the laws of statistics. Sample size is critical. To produce reliable results, you need a large enough sample size to provide statistically accurate information. The larger the sample size, the more reliable. Unfortunately, for a lot of PDs and MDs in small and medium markets, the sample sizes needed for statistical accuracy are not proportionate to market size. This means that a station in Flint would need just as many respondents as a station in Philly in a quantitative study. That's why most small-to-medium markets can't afford effective quantitative studies. Now we're not saying that if you happen to be in a small or medium market that your research is not valuable or accurate. It's just that once you understand the law of statistics, you can make the necessary adjustments.

This is even more reason for you to use your gut instincts and market experience to help make your decisions. As a programmer you don't have to understand linear algebra to use research, but it is extremely important that you operate under and understand the laws of statistics. I'll share a secret with you: The ballpark number for a reliable random sample for quantitative studies in any market over 10,000 is at least 600 respondents. Lacking this information and having a research project with a lesser number is a problem.

Another problem for a lot of small and medium-market stations in 2012 is the lack of independent attitudes toward new music. There are only a few real trailblazers out there. Now we're not advocating that you should suddenly become a trailblazer and lose your job -- even if it turns out you were right. That's like sacrificing your head to save your arm.

And not all programmers are easily impressed by figures if they're not sold on a record's sound. You can still have some PDs who, when told by a label rep, "Hey, we just sold 200,000 copies of this song online and it moved 10 chart positions," will say, "Congratulations. But I'm still not adding the record because it's not the right sound for my station." What should you do if you're working for a label and you run into this problem? First, respect the PD and back off. You're not going to win by being confrontational, even if you're right.

Fortunately, there are some calculated risk-takers/sound-oriented programmers out there. It's often an attitude vs. a format that dictates when and where a song is added. The question label reps should ask is, "What would be good for the format and is it going to help build audience for the station?" What's the answer? "Anything that gives your station the ability to be hit-oriented and fresh and still build cume." Some successful PDs we know say, "We don't look at charts or research exclusively. If a jam doesn't fit our sound, it doesn't get played. All we do is read between the lines of both chart and research." Still others say they watch records that develop from their weekend mix shows.

Dayparting is vital in building cume. Knowing when to expose a new record is extremely important. For most Urban stations, nights are the most active listening period to break and establish new music. Nights also keep the base audience -- the young 12-24 year-olds -- locked into your station. You can really get away with more at night than during any other daypart.

Some programmers get overwhelmed by research. You don't want to make that mistake. You can't apply too much science to an art that is not totally scientific. Great radio is emotional and passionate. Remember, cume is still the key and the goal. With PPM it's even more important. Urban formats must address the fact that there are least two generations of listeners for whom our music is very important ... even crucial. They can still produce adventure in what might otherwise be a wasteland of boring radio.

Finally, avoiding the cume crisis is as simple as recognizing that you don't need a baseline or benchmark. By the time you've baselined or benchmarked, it's already too late. What you do need is the callousness to cope with ... and the passion to get over ... the hurdles.

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