The New Urban Evolution

How We're Affected By The Future With A Past

Whenever we visit these issues, naturally we usually focus on a look back at the past in radio, recorded music and video. This time, I also want to focus on some future changes that will affect us all.

The past year was one in which we witnessed phenomenal changes. It was a year in which group ownership began to shift. Pure oldies formats shrank and "Movin'" formats grew. But probably the part of the industry that took the longest leap was the Internet and cell-phone technology. And with that growth came new phrases and information technology that continues to affect the way people live, communicate and do business. More and more it defines our potential society. It will determine how we learn and how we earn a living.

The communications and information business now make up 14% of our economy. That means jobs. Six out of every 10 new jobs are computer related. The new technology touches every worker in every sector of the economy.

The civil rights challenge for 2007 and the new century is to make sure that African-Americans share in the benefits of the information age. We must have access to technology, employment opportunities and opportunities for ownership.

Speaking of opportunities, during this past year we saw awesome growth in the genre of rap-influenced rock music. Rap is now on the same level as grunge in the sense that it unified a generation of American culture. At the same time, rap doesn't have the social urgency and impact that grunge had. Grunge was about "Hey, wait a minute, I've got issues." And "Jeremy spoke in class today." Rap is about "I'm so bad I can rhyme, take care of my business all while I'm on a booty call." Hip-hop is more fun. It's all about gettin' your groove on, hotties, gold chains, bigger bling, nice cars and we want to be big stars -- with phat bass beats.

Demographic Density

What about the audience that is drawn to a station that offers those phat bass beats? Is it the same audience that still turns to terrestrial radio as a music source. Are those beats attracting more than they are turning off? What are the demographics of this new, younger audience? Do they just want to hear new music or are they still fond of some of the songs they grew up with?

As we move further into the spring Arbitron sweeps we need some answers to these questions. Urban radio sees itself still trying to find a current music mix that satisfies both the upper end and lower ends of the demographic scale. The problem is that we're always trying to find an equilibrium between those two cells. Most mainstream or young-end urbans are 18-34 targeted and are not going to age with their audience. We're always shredding audience on the top end as we become less relevant for those listeners and more relevant for 18-year olds coming into our stations. The goal is still to grow more than you shed and find a way to serve those in between.

One other things that has emerged in the last few months - is the "Black Generation X.." It not only surfaced, but grew. Its members range in age from 19-29. In spite of the lack of attention paid to them, they are the next generation of leaders and higher earners.

This past year saw definite growth patterns in demographic density in many of our major cities. It's a population that is rapidly changing its demographic status. From the time someone graduates from high school. usually at 18, until they turn 30, their lives typically transform from dependents living with parents to workers supporting themselves to married couples and, often, to parenthood. They have become a moving target - one that is very hard to hit. The only way to hit it is to change with it. Because if you don't understand it, you can't target it and you will keep missing it despite research, big budgets and super signals.

This past year was a very different year indeed. And a quick look back gives us an opportunity not only to reflect on radio's achievements but also on the phenomenal changes of the entire music industry. Urban music, in all its forms, continues to play a key role in those changes and its presence has allowed an immense variety of music to flourish as never before.

Because of that, this year in "Urbanizing" we're going to concentrate on helping you to make your radio listenership stronger by offering not just programming tips, but also competitive market strategies. We'll answer some questions on utilizing audience research, extending average quarter-hours, building cume through music and program schedule rotation, format appeal methodologies and positioning. Lots of fun stuff like that.

This year we also need to center more of our focus around providing information for worthwhile personal career choices, endeavors like planning long-term audience growth. How to better understand audience trends and how to predict them. We're going to examine the effect that passive, electronic measurement from Arbitron's PPM is going to have on all of us.

The biggest single factor that I would like to emphasize initially regarding the PPM is that it is going to measure unintended listening for the first time. It's going to record what the audience is exposed to, rather than what they are listening to. Early indicators from Houston and Philly are that cume is going to go up, while average quarter-hours and time-spent-listening will drop. What is happening is that we're going to get a measurement of ambient and out-of-home listening that diary-keepers have not been recording. This listening may have always been there, but it might not have been recorded because listeners may have forgotten it or not even thought to record it when they were actually listening to the radio, apart from their typical setting.

Going forward, in both radio and music, style, spirits, design and performance are all essential components of growth.

In a world where learning and growth are essential and often proceed at a breakneck pace, a world of bytes and bits, group ownership and acquisitions, production planning and fixed asset accounting, the greatest successes seem to always be enjoyed when there is also time for learning about sharing, respect and teamwork. It's really nothing but a new language, we all have to learn along with the words and what they mean. These are all some of the early signs of the new urban evolution. Many more people would recognize it, perhaps realize many of their great expectations and even learn from their mistakes -- if they weren't so busy denying that they made them.

Word.