When Is It Time To Drop The Add?

Radio Needs To Allow Artists & Records To Develop

It seems to be happening more and more with Urban and Urban AC radio -- tracks that weren't testing in callout research two weeks or a month ago finally kick in. Unfortunately, sometimes that happens after a label has decided to walk away from the project. So when is it time to "drop the add?"

Record labels have always maintained that programmers expect callout research to produce passion scores and early results way too soon. If there was ever a time when labels, which have a huge financial investment in their artists, need radio to cooperate, it is now.

On the other hand, the future of radio has never seemed more in a state of flux than now. So radio's answer to the question of when to drop a new record that isn't performing is going to be quite different and based on a number of factors. At first glance, most of the programmers and consultants we spoken with said they're looking for positive results from their callout research, requests and other market airplay. Even the most adventurous ones said they wanted research to confirm their gut feelings.

Programmers make the point that there are only so many slots for new music in a given week, and sometimes they simply cannot make room. Callout research is not infallible, but if used properly it's still one of the most important tools in their arsenals. My advice for label executives, and I've been on both sides of the fence, is you don't want to question the station's research. That's a battle you will lose; but if you have some fresh new information, you can promote that to them. Then it's like being in court. If you assemble your facts and arguments and do your homework, you have a shot. Radio still has the option of walking away from a record at any time and it also has the option of re-adding the song if it comes back in research or moving on to the next single.

Label executives claim there's a problem when you see all the active elements in a song not connecting. In other words, at the crux of the problem comes the question of when can a PD reasonably expect a song to generate callout. Radio wants to see a song research in 150 or more spins. Labels say it's unfair to expect to see a record react quickly, especially when the stations may have one or both of their drive-time shows syndicated. It is my contention that the callout research system itself is flawed. If a station has a syndicated morning and/or afternoon show, a record in heavy rotation may only air 25 times a week. And if a record starts out with bad research, it usually stays there.

What programmers want is to get a really good read on a record early, which is why some of them put songs in callout as early as the 20-spin mark. Now to be fair, this can only work if the artist is familiar and/or the song has already been warmed up in the market. Most national record reps feel that an Urban Crossover record, which usually starts with other airplay in the market, will test sooner.

Another problem is when the record is played. If it is only played at night or overnights, it can take longer to develop. Sometimes radio will see perhaps 10 tracks a year that explode right away. They get conditioned to expect that performance from any record after only 100-150 daytime spins.

Programmers are under tremendous pressure and are naturally impatient and want to play only immediate, proven hits with the least possible risks. But they need to allow artists and records time to develop. You're always going to be subject to the callout research itself. There are going to be weeks when the research is flawed and you have to ask the right questions to find out if it's a bad batch. There could be sample size issues or a certain demographic cells could be over- or under-represented and naturally you have to look at what the potential score might be.

Mitigating Exceptions To The Rule

Experienced programmers remember that callout research is just one element to be examined in making a decision on whether to continue or drop the record. If you're getting requests, if the jocks like it and if it sounds good on the air, you should give it some more time to develop. You don't want to be forced to re-add a record. Also, you have to discount heavy requests for an established artist because it an expected part of the equation.

Then there are records that get added that may never callout. They are aired for other reasons. The two main reasons would be "balance records" and "event records." If, for example, yours is a straightahead Urban station and you're "ballad-heavy," you might put in a new, uptempo record just to keep the sound fresh and add some tempo to the station. An example of an "event record" would be a new record by an established artist who is coming to town. That record is part of an event. These types of records often get played regardless of what the data is showing. Because these records invariably don't reach critical mass as currents, once they do kick in they're much slower to burn. Artists such as Alicia Keys or, last year, Robin Thicke, would be examples. If a "payoff" is only a few weeks away, it makes sense to wait. Experience tells us that while there's no guarantee of a hit, staying with a record for a little longer can make all the difference.

Cracks In The Corners

With multi-ownership deals crumbling and large conglomerates such as Clear Channel looking to sell off some of their stations, the once solid foundation of broadcasting is now not without a few cracks. There are some really good broadcasters losing their jobs. The tragedy is that they are losing their jobs simply because the company has decided to cut back. Looking at this from a record label standpoint, now it means just trying to get someone on the phone to give you a few basic answers can be a nightmare.

So when is it time to drop the record you just added? Maybe that question could be subsumed in the larger question of whether anything has a future. It's easy to look at, pick on and question the future of the Urban formats these days for various reasons, but look at it this way: Do the movies have any kind of future if all we're going to get is seven blockbusters a year we have to stand in line for hours to pay $20 to see? Does anybody who has peeked into some of the galleries in New York's SoHo or even looked at the stuff that gets written up in the Art sections of Time and Newsweek see any kind of future for art that would involve its really mattering to anybody? Before you attempt to answer those questions consider this: Whether historical or projected, pre-tax of after-tax, cash flow is the formula on which performance, profi, and today's jobs are based. Radio and the music industry are considered by investors and operations alike as the end game and the basis upon which most management abilities are judged. In an era where banks, brokers and buyers are shouting "show me the money," it should be noted that no one and nothing is really safe.

Coping With Condom Radio

We all want to be safe today. That's why things like scented condoms, deodorants and air freshners are selling so big today. But what about music on the radio? Is safe the key word in everything? Do PDs and MDs just want to add and play safe songs? Is that the reason so much emphasis is placed on research -- much of it callout research -- because everybody wants to be safe? There are many questions and few answers, depending on who you ask and whether or not they are employed at the time you ask, because if they're not employed, you may get a different answer ... often the real truth. Not the one they are forced to give out as a consequence of their employment.

Those who are still employed are often forced to conform to refined music targeting. Can Urban formats re-tool and re-emerge as winning formats in Arbitron's new PPM era? Part of that answer lies in the music. Urban songs are starting to hit home again, while pure hip-hop is creating a niche format of its own. All of this has caught many programmers a little off-guard. PDs who were groomed on the premise of music-intensive radio aren't practiced in the art of refined music targeting. As a result, the energy and the fun that today's Urban music conveys may be missing form their stations.

Stations still call themselves "Blazin'" or "Jammin'" and boast more non-stop music than anybody else. The trouble is that we've overdosed on all that. We have continued to adhere to the task of removing perceived irritants from our radio stations. So what's left? More music, simple giveaways or flyaways, music-oriented liners and no risks. Is this the formula for today's Urban radio? If so, who decided that this was the safe, sanitized, money-saving path? And if it turns out not to be, who is going to take the blame? You know all too well who's going to get the blame -- the PD ... only now they're known as the "programmed director."

The pendulum has swung. Radio has become too sanitized, too tight. Recorded positioners and repetitive liners are the rule and not the exception. It's boring radio. That's one of the reasons that listeners have abandoned terrestrial radio for other entertainment forms. Contests and promotions used to reflect the spirit of fun and games and levity instead of simply giving away a prize to caller number nine.

Historically, in earlier times Urban music started to take an opposite turn and was driven by solid love ballads and clever hip-hop songs that had a message. Today, while we're at war and experiencing difficult economic periods, our music again needs to be a paradox, providing levity and a beat to lift listeners out of their gloom.

Rap music is still the music of today for a lot of adult listeners. That's very important for the young end of your audience without which you cannot possibly dominate in your market. People grew up with certain music and when these young adults grew up there were no specialized Urban formats, so they became used to hearing all the hits all the time. Unlike Top 40, AC and Rock, the Urban audience is more active and more impatient. They still want the best jams of today and if that now includes some rap, that's what you've got to give them. There are songs now, as that take you back to a point in time in which you can reference yourself. Ask yourself this question: Would McDonald's, Reebok and other major companies take a chance on rap if it was going to run away any customers? Could it be that these dope beats and rhymes are scaring off adults? No way. Everywhere you go, you hear it -- rap music, the thumping songs with sampling, drum machines, rhyming voice with snatches and scratches tied around the beats. Rap subject matter covers a wide range, from hardcore violence to raunchy sex with much aggrandizing about everything in between.

When adults tell you in focus groups or auditorium tests they don't like rap, what they are really saying is that they don't like some rap. When they say that they don't like talk, what they mean is they don't like the kind they hear on many stations. But if your station's current playlist includes some hit rap songs that work, it gives you freshness, hipness and energy. Those are key ingredients that flavor your station and kick it up a notch.

Much like some rock, rap's tough sound and occasionally aggressive aesthetic can be abrasive and anti-authoritarian, raising concern among some parents and critics about its sexual explicitness, macho swaggering and association with violence. The key is to be very selective about the rap you play. Choose the clean versions of some songs and make certain the songs in the adjacent positions are pure and popular.

The Shrinking Playlist And The Calculated Risk Takers

Finally we want to touch on the shrinking playlist and the calculated risk takers. In the future the calculated risk takers are going to be the winners ... all things considered. Who are they and why will they win? They are the programmers and music directors who understand what risks to take and when to take them.

They are not driven by "fear-based thinking." Fear-based thinking often carries over to the point where the whole station caters to focus groups and callout research studies at the expense of the real target ... the listeners. A wining station has to reach out and touch folks. It has to make an emotional connection. The Urban audience is very forgiving, but they still want variety and freshness.

Calculated risk takers understand the product of radio. If a song sounds good, tests well and has a low potential burn-out, it's worth taking a risk on because chances are, it's a song that people will want to hear. What these calculated risk takers also know is to be careful of being forced to fill categories and add music that isn't working or may never work. Sometimes they will have taken chances that will be followed by a bad rating or trend.

That doesn't mean that you automatically tighten up the playlist. Usually a fresh, aggressive approach to current music makes the most sense following a down book or trend. One bad book is just a sweep away from being erased and forgotten. Calculated risk takers will win because they will take some chances. Conservative programmers live and die by research. Risk takers calculate the pros and cons of each add, know the trade-off involved and have the courage of their own convictions. They know how to reflect the demand as well as create it.

Another thing to consider when deciding whether or not to drop the add is do you want to take a chance on a song that has the potential to be a hit early? The question you also have to ask is, does this song fit the image of the brand? In other words, would your audience expect to hear this song on our station? What about the record industry? Don't they have a stake in this as well? Absolutely. But they have to make some realistic adjustments as well. Every new record can't become a priority. What about promotion executives hyping and saying everything is a smash or continuing to ask for favors? Some say they are just doing their jobs. They're trying to get the artist(s) they're working at radio full shot -- a meaningful rotation. All they want is a full commitment from radio to new music.

Just remember: It's not whether you win or lose, but how you place the blame.

Word.