Competing For Cume

The Key Is To Be Ahead Without Being Way Out

Cume is key for Urban formats. That means getting some new people to listen to your radio station. This is nothing new. What may be new is the fact that for many Urban stations, the passion that drives that cume is fading. In order to build cume during these important Spring Arbitron sweeps, Urban radio needs to be doing the very best possible job of making sure there are no wasted words, wrong songs or confusing marketing.

The other thing that always helps to build cume is to find and play some fresh jams. Unfortunately, very few Urban stations are listening to and playing new music these days. As a result, for many listeners Urban formats have become unbelievably boring. Boring formats translate into serious cume crises. A few years from now when our libraries are fried and we're left with no current music image, we're really going to be in trouble. There is also a confidence problem. We're starting to see it in focus groups. As fragmentation continues, Urban stations need to become not only a new music source, but also mood setters.

Playing What You're Saying

All music formats are guilty to some extent of adding, but not playing, songs. If you add a record you've got to play it four, five or six times a day. Otherwise, why bother? A lot of programmers we've spoken to lately say that the problem is compounded by the fact that they have syndicated shows, whose music they don't control. The solution is to schedule your new music in those dayparts you do control. Regardless of whatever else may be going on at your station, you need to realize that records that are under-played for whatever reason are not going to do well in callout research.

When we asked several PDs in various size markets if they had heard any outstanding, potentially cume-building records lately they said, "Let me check." They hit a few key strokes on their computer and came back and said, "No." When I probed them further the prevalent answer was that very few of the records they thought had potential came back in their research. Now I believe in research as a tool as much as anybody. But effective research is the balance of science and emotion. Everything should start emotionally and creatively. Then we use research to see if it confirms our gut instincts.

One of the reasons Urban radio gets so stale is because people keep researching past behavior. What we mean by that is any pure researcher in any field except marketing would never ask a series of strategic questions like: "What do they like? What don't they like? Why do they use radio?" For this type research, I would prefer forward-looking questions, such as "Would you listen often, sometimes or never to a station that played the following titles?" And then list the titles.

Strategic Cume Building Research

I probably get more requests for this information than any other - and not just from new, first-time programmers, but from veterans as well. Properly utilized, research will tell you where you are in terms of your listeners' demands for your product and what you have to do to hit your goals of cume, ratings shares, demo targets and product awareness. But when all else is equal in a competitive battle, the station that has the best information about the audience's needs -- and then does the best job of meeting those needs will win the cume battle.

You can be the best programmer and have the best research, but no matter how talented you are or how hard you work, if you do not have the best information about the audience's needs, or you can't interpret the research accurately, you will not be able to deliver the results expected by your management. Here's why: As important as research is in 2008, even the very best research will not guarantee results for your station. Many stations spend a ton of time and money on research and still watch their cumes collapse.

Why? Some PDs are better than others at making research work for them. They aren't necessarily smarter or more experienced, just more strategic. They have a strategy and a plan to go with that strategy. In addition, they usually have a clearly defined set of goals that expresses where they want to end up. They have the knowledge and experience to deal with research companies. They are not intimidated by researchers who have had little or no firsthand experience and don't specialize in Urban formats. They have a formalized implementation plan to take the research findings and make the necessary changes to programming in order to achieve their goals. They have a staff with the skills and experience to get the job done. Research is just a tool. Without good management, the best research will wind up wasted.

Statistics & Sample Size

As a programmer, you need to know a little about the laws of statistics. Sample size is critical. To produce reliable results, you need large enough sample size to provide statistically accurate information. The larger the sample size, the more reliable. Unfortunately, for a lot of PDs and MDs in small and medium markets, the sample sizes needed for statistical accuracy are not proportionate to market size. This means that a station in Baton Rouge would need just as many respondents as a station in Baltimore in a quantitative study. That's why most small to medium markets can't afford effective quantitative studies.

Now we're not saying that if you happen to be in a small or medium market, your research is not valuable or accurate -- just that once you understand the law of statistics, you can make the necessary adjustments. This is even more reason for you to use your gut instincts and market experience to help make your decisions. As a programmer you don't have to understand linear algebra to use research, but it is extremely important that you operate under and understand the laws of statistics. I'll share a secret with you: The ballpark number for a reliable random sample for quantitative studies in any market over 10,000 is at least 600 respondents. Lacking this information and having a research project with a lesser number is a problem.

Another problem for a lot of small and medium-market stations in 2008 is the lack of independent attitudes toward new music. There are only a few real trailblazers out there. Now we're not advocating that you should suddenly become a trailblazer and lose your job -- even if it turns out you were right. That's like sacrificing your head to save your arm. Not all programmers are easily impressed by figures if they're not sold on a record's sound. You can still have some PDs who when told by a label rep, "Hey, we just sold 200,000 copies of this record and it moved 10 chart positions." will say, "Congratulations. But I'm still not adding the record because it's not the right sound for my station."

What should you do if you're working for a label and you run into this problem? First, respect the PD and back off. You're not going to win by being confrontational, even if you're right. Fortunately, there are some calculated risk-takers -- sound-oriented programmers out there. It's often an attitude vs. a format that dictates when and where a song is added. Also, understand that we're now in the spring Arbitron sweeps. They're the most important ratings period of the year - so naturally PDs are going to be a little conservative. The question label reps should ask is "What would be good for the format and is it going to help build audience for the station?" The answer to that question is "Is this a song that that would give the station the ability to be hit-oriented and fresh and still build cume?" Some successful PDs we know say, "We don't look at charts or research exclusively. If a jam doesn't fit our sound, it doesn't get played. All we do is read between the lines of both chart and research." Still others say they watch records that develop from their weekend mix shows.

Dayparting is vital in building cume. Knowing when to expose a new record is extremely important. For most Urban stations, nights are the most active listening period to break and establish new music. Nights also keep the base audience -- the young 12-24 year-olds locked into your station. You can really get away with more at night than during any other daypart.

Finally, some programmers get overwhelmed by research. You don't want to make that mistake. You can't apply too much science to an art that is not totally scientific. Great radio is emotional and passionate. Remember, cume is still the key and the goal. When Arbitron's PPM kicks in, cume is going to be even more important. Urban formats must address the fact that there are least two generations of listeners for whom our music is crucial. Done right, these formats can still produce adventure in what might otherwise be a wasteland of boring radio.

Word.