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Hit the Button: Reset!
November 7, 2008
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Jimmy Carter in his homebase Nashville
Every week lately is crazier than the last. The roller coaster economy and a presidential election were emotionally exhausting for the whole nation.
No matter what side you were on, the lead up to that was like swimming in a toxic lake. The reds versus the blues. The negative vibe was sickening.
President-elect Obama sure has his hands full bringing this country back out of this rut.
How will Nashville fare under the Obama years? That is the jackpot question, isn't it?
If you watch the stock market or read any business news you see trouble. NASCAR teams without sponsors was an early indication that trouble was ahead. Still you hear no real word that Music Row is nervous. It looks like full speed ahead.
But how can that be? CD sales seem to really be in the toilet. Sales of the big stars are half what they were last album. Even with the big-name releases of the last two months, people are watching their spending. The gas prices are better; we can be thankful for that at least.
As we drive toward 2009 with ever-greater speed, the road ahead has all the signals of a black cloud on the horizon. Many think the recession is half over and things will get better later in 2009, but what happens until then?
We've seen some pretty ugly layoffs already in the radio business. The print folks have been knocking staff off by the hundreds. Maybe Music Row is already as lean as it can be.
Look at 2009 in your crystal ball. Are we going to continue in the way of Jessica Simpson and the "Idol" stars? Or going to a more traditional sound? I don't think anyone seems to know.
One thing you do know: The nation's pre-30-year-olds have a great influence now. Add minorities to that mix and you have the 2008 election. How does all this shake out for Music Row ... and Country radio, for that matter?
We are in the Internet years, but are Country music fans in that world? Physical sales of CDs are down are they going away or not? Wal-Mart reports a 23 % decrease in physical CD sales in the first of the 4th quarter and they may cut back shelf space. Circuit City is cutting back a hundred or so stores. It is getting more complicated, isn't it?
So many questions ... and who has the answers? Can the slow moving dinosaurs survive this T-Rex time? Youth ... anything-goes social behavior ... the wild west Internet. Should Music Row reflect this change or fight to retain tradition? Hell if I know.
Is Jessica Simpson the future of country? Is Kevin Costner? Is a talent like Brad Paisley, who represents the best of old and new, the new President of Country?
The American Music Awards will be virtually Country-less this year. I bet their ratings will stink, too. Taylor Swift will be our token performing representative. She's a doll and is a much bigger star than just the Country format. Everyone I know is holding their breath to see her sales in the first two weeks of her sophomore CD, "Fearless." I bet they will be good.
The CMA Awards may or may not be a reflection of anything. It's hard to not see the fingerprints of the conglomerates on the nominations -- and probably the wins.
ABC will be felt, too. Miley and Billy Ray are prominent in the show's publicity. Can the young guns of Country draw a national TV audience? They didn't for the CMA Music festival show. Still, that's not the CMAs, the one Country show the masses do watch each year. The question is about the draw of the star power. Beyond the top 10, is there any draw? I don't think so.
The top stars in the format are crossover, very popular folks. I can't think of a better top 10 -- Kenny, Brad, Keith, Sugarland and Rascal Flatts are strong. It's the next 10 who seem so weak to me. Who out there on deck is the next Paisley or even Underwood? This is where the economy -- or lack of one -- kicks in. How do you take the risks to make new superstars on such limited budgets? That is what we shall see, I guess.
Godspeed to our new President. We need for him to be a smash hit. As we head full speed into the holidays, it is a time to be thankful for what we do have. Be thankful and hopeful that the country pulls together and we correct the screw-ups of the last few years.
The greed of a few brought us to this point on Wall Street. That unbridled grab for money and power has hit a brick wall. Let's hope this great country's strong foundation will allow us to get back up and running.
Country music used to be the voice of the common man. Is it still? Will hard times mean good days for Country? What is this genre of music the voice of? We need to relocate our soul and base and do it very quickly.
Is Country the new Top 40 with idols, movie stars and pop music spin-offs? Is the Internet the future of the format itself?
People used to listen to the radio for the music. Yes, but people were the secret ingredient of the success. How can you grow new Country morning shows with young people when every radio station is firing its staffs of night and weekend folks? Downsizing to a bare minimum. You are killing your future, but you have to do what you have to do. The greed and excess of the '90s and all that rush to buy everything is coming home. Consolidation now is like playing the old game of hot potato ... and the music has stopped. Ouch!
Challenges are at every turn. The technology is fascinating. But at the end of the day, people have to be in the mix too.
Maybe in this new presidential era, broadcast and music companies will start cherishing their employees again. Treat them right and act like they give a damn. Have a heart again. Treat the employees like family. I hope it's not too late for that kind of good old days to come back.
Country Music needs badly to find its soul before it's too late.
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