The Next Big Thing ... 2018 Edition!!

Vince Gill sung about it in 2003 ... Everybody is talking about the next big thing.

In the '60s, Jan & Dean sang about the "New Girl in School." Everybody's talking about the new girl in school ... The new car, new girl, the new Country singing sensation.

A truckload were taken to the showroom this week at the Country Radio Seminar. No shortage of new or semi-new musical wonders.

,Do the Country singers and Pop singers, for that matter, have a shelf life these days? Like milk in the refrigerator, do you have a certain amount of time to go from Next Big Thing to sensation to "bon voyage?"

There is a career evolution. Just ask those with decades' worth of careers: Paul McCartney, The Rolling Stones, Roger Waters, Charlie Daniels, Ronnie Milsap, Chicago and the recent retirements of Neil Diamond, Paul Simon and Elton John. The one thing these varied artists have in common is their rarity in the Top Ten after that initial "sensation decade" (or less). Hard to get your music played after the first 10 in the spotlight. Even Tony Bennett couldn't get a hit single, but did have a few hit albums over the 60-plus year career ... Hit radio of any kind is not keen on the over 35 ....and with Country, ditto in 2018.

These baby acts have a steep mountain to climb. Look at all those baby acts that never got past one-hit wonders or maybe two hit. It's a very hard business and the landscape is forever changing. The game rules exist on a roulette wheel.

Now the labels have their hand in your pocket, getting tour and merchandise money to make up for the lack of sales. The artist needs that marketing muscle (real or imagined) to get on the radio and TV. And building that name brand is expensive and time consuming. Only a few microwavable superstars can be found, but a few do exist. Labels work hard often in a thankless environment. They know better than most the "what have you done for me lately" lyric.

Brooks and Dunn, Alan Jackson, Alabama, George Strait ... to name a few ... still playing and could (and should) be played on the radio. Garth got a #1 in 2017 and that was a rarity and heartwarming for those still seeking radio attention after several decades of off-chart duty.

Homework assignment: Go to the BBC Radio 2 website. Find the Brad Paisley podcast, This is Country Music.

Runs new for four weeks at 10p, London Time, on Wednesday nights. The musical mix kept me listening for an hour straight at home. That hasn't happened in a very long time. The musical mix was crazy. The Eagles, Stones, Skaggs, Jones, Paisley, Margo Price, Stapleton and Isbell. It all fit and seemed like a future cool show ... not something from the '70s. Go find it ... Listen to in in total. It won't kill you.

Radio is trying to survive ... Broadcast television is trying to survive ... record labels are trying to survive. All are benefiting and dying, thanks to technology. All three having to reinvent themselves and trying to monetize the new technology.

Artists are chasing the consumers. Concert ticket prices are higher and that can't be a good thing for anyone. Costs of doing business are higher and the audience is hungry for a musical memory night -- at what cost? Can they afford to go to all these great shows? When do some folks start getting hurt at the box office?

The new baby acts in the ideal are able to reach more than just U.S. Country audiences. They need to be multi-format and saleable outside North America. Stapleton has the #1, #2 and #3 albums on the Country charts ... Three in the top 20 in Pop. He sells/streams/plays to Country, Rock, Americana and who knows what else. That's what the doctor ordered!

Maren Morris, Taylor Swift, Florida Georgia Line are all heard on multiple-formatted stations. Streaming is here whether you like it or not.

CDs are not quite 8-tracks and cassettes but they are on that road. Best Buy, Target and others reevaluating their CD positions.

Country radio and record labels really are going nuts. Country fans aren't streaming anywhere near what other formats are doing; they are still buying CDs. Great Internet is not universal.

Facebook keeps screwing around with who sees what ... can anyone figure out Snapchat ... and Twitter is great for news fans but they're in trouble with growth and appeal.

These are rough waters to boat in.

From what I can tell, some good idea sharing went on this week at CRS. Some fresh and old musical faces left people with a good taste in their ears.

But trying to find a one-size-fits-all path is insane. Regionally, demographically, racially, gender-specific, the world is wide open. Hollywood, Bollywood and The Grammys running around with their heads on fire!

These are really turbulent times. It's good turbulence and overdue on the sexual misconduct front. But it's all very hard to keep up with and to service.

The radio people go home with Music City wonder and The Music City folks are just trying to hold on until whenever next big thing sails in.